Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

Pick - Prop

A rogue price and an edge on a batter with 36 home runs this season—I'll hit the button on that all day! Santander is trading at FanDuel at +440 to hit a home run on Tuesday, while the rest of the market is offering this prop between +350 and +375. This rogue price creates a much larger probability gap that we can exploit, as projections price Santander at +325 to hit a home run on Tuesday. Santander will be facing left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana of the Mets at Citi Field, and while Santander has only hit 10 of his 36 home runs against left-handed pitchers this season, that’s in just 121 at-bats.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 3 hrs, 15 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Bryan Reynolds has hit only one home run in his last 23 games, yet he’s probably my favorite play on the board because of his price. When you hit a cold streak like this with home runs, your odds get longer and longer, and I think it’s time to strike on Reynolds, who will be facing Texas Rangers southpaw Cody Bradford at Globe Life Field. Bradford has given up five home runs this season, all to right-handed batters. With FanDuel offering this prop at +520, the rest of the market around +450, and projections pricing it at +322, I’m hitting the button on the Pirates All-Star hitting a home run on Tuesday.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 2 hrs, 55 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Royce Lewis will be facing San Diego Padres left-handed pitcher Martin Perez on Tuesday, and Lewis has crushed lefties this season with a .308 average and .999 OPS. Meanwhile, Perez has allowed 17 home runs this season, 14 of which have come against right-handed batters. The splits suggest a favorable matchup, and there is a notable probability gap in the odds for Lewis. Projections indicate that Lewis should be trading closer to +275 to hit a home run on Tuesday, yet we can buy a +404 at Pinnacle.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 3 hrs, 24 min ago.

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Pick - Total

Both the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres enter with rolling offenses and excellent platoon splits for Tuesday’s matchup. The Twins sport a ninth-ranked .325 wOBA against lefties while averaging 5.25 runs across their past eight games, while the Friars respectively rank fourth with a .329 mark against righties while averaging 5.69 runs across their past 13. Additionally, Minny starter Bailey Ober sports a 4.04 ERA on the road compared to his 2.78 home mark, and San Diego starter Martin Perez will have his first true test with his new club following three layup starts to begin his tenure.Plus, Perez’s 4.62 ERA and 4.36 xFIP for the season are nothing to write home about.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 43 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Cal Raleigh will be facing Walker Buehler on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium, and Buehler has been struggling this season against left-handed batters. Left-handed batters are hitting .341 with a 1.005 OPS against Buehler, and to make matters worse for him, the wind will be blowing out to right field at 9.2 mph on Tuesday. Not only is Buehler struggling against left-handed batters, but Raleigh, a switch-hitter, has launched 16 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. While a +360 on Raleigh might not excite you, projections indicate this price should be trading closer to +225.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 3 hrs, 38 min ago.

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Pick - Total

Bryce Miller gets the nod for Seattle. While he’s been unhittable at home (2.09 ERA), he’s proved mortal on the road (4.76 ERA). He has some of the most notable home-road splits you’ll see — his K rate drops from 28.9% to 16.8%, while his BA rises from .188 to .237, his FIP from 2.39 to 4.94, and his HR/9 from 0.47 to 1.73. In case you haven’t heard, the Dodgers possess a capable lineup. They have a 119 wRC+ (fourth) and .335 wOBA (sixth) at home, going 35-25-1 O/U at Dodger Stadium.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 54 min ago.

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